(1 hour 47 mins in)
GREEN gain from LABOUR May 2010
THANK YOU TO EVERYONE WHO MADE IT POSSIBLE
Change %age share of party vote 2010 over 2005
CAROLINE LUCAS - GREEN 16,238 31.3% +9.4
Nancy Platts Labour 14,986 28.9 -7.5
Charlotte Vere Conservative 12,275 23.7 +0.4
Bernadette Millam Liberal Democrat 7,159 13.8 -2.2
Nigel Carter UK Independence Party 948 1.8 +0.6
Ian Fyvie Socialist Labour Party 148 0.3 -0.1
Soraya Kara Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality 61 0.1 +0.1
Leo Atreides Independent 19 0.0 +0.0
Majority 1,252 2.4
Pre-election information to voters
The UK's largest on line betting site puts Caroline as favourite candidate in Brighton Pavilion at odds-on with a 51% chance of winning.
The Green Party Leader and Euro-MP has been rated by Britain's largest online betting site Betfair with more than a 51% chance of winning, the first candidate in the constituency to be rated at over 50%.
Betfair say "This is the first time since betting began that a candidate in this contest has been odds-on in this election.
"Caroline Lucas now has a 51% chance of winning the seat, say Betfair customers."
Betfair also say: "Our customers bet against each other and set their own odds, so this is the opinion of real people and not your regular bookie."
Latest online odds-checker results.
Elections - Greens in the lead in every recent election in Brighton Pavilion
In the recent European Election of June 2009, we were the clear winners across the whole city which covers three constituencies (not just Brighton Pavilion where Green support is strongest).
- We won 31% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 22% and Labour on just 15% citywide.
- We hold more council seats than any other party in Brighton Pavilion constituency – nine to Labour’s five and the Tories’ six.
- And the Greens came first across the constituency in the May 2007 council elections, winning 30% of the vote.
What the results - and the experts - say
Although the Labour Party are trying to frighten voters into voting for them, respected polling organisations are backing the Greens' chances to win - and so are the bookies.
In mid December 2009 the Green Party commissioned a national polling company ICM Research to undertake a telephone poll of 533 voters matched to the local profile of voters in the constituency.*
The Greens were ahead of all the other parties with an 8% lead in the constituency over the second placed Conservatives.* 35% of voters in the poll said they would be likely to support the Greens with the Conservatives on 27%, Labour on 25% and LibDems on 11%. Read more here.
Major betting chains Skybet, Paddy Power and William Hill continue to rate Caroline as favourite to pip the Tories into second place, with Labour trailing third.
In September 2009 Politics Home, a Westminster political news service, published its annual poll of marginal constituencies. It is forecasting a Green win in Brighton Pavilion constituency.
In the recent European Election of 2009 in the city, the Greens were clear winners - winning 31% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 22% and Labour on just 15%.
Greens hold more council seats than any other party in Brighton Pavilion constituency - nine to Labour's five and the Tories' six.
The Greens came first across the constituency in the May 2007 council elections, winning 30% of the vote.
- Forecast UK, an independent poll forecaster, has been predicting a Green win in Brighton Pavilion since 2006. http://www.forecastuk.org.uk (latest prediction Jan 2010).
What happened last time?
In the 2005 general election in Brighton Pavilion constituency the Greens came a strong third place with almost 22% - just behind the Tories on 23.9% and Labour's 35.4% The Liberal Democrats trailed in fourth place on 16%.
*ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 533 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 16-21st December 2009. Interviews were conducted across the political constituency of Brighton Pavilion and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Brighton Pavilion adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.